Can America's health sector rise to meet compounding challenges? From Congress to kitchen tables, boardrooms to doctor's waiting rooms, Americans recognize they must shape a new approach to health, which by 2020 will account for one-fifth of the country's total gross domestic product.

Global management consulting firm A.T. Kearney's Health@250 initiative today released a report on a dawning era of innovation that promises to increase wellness, decrease disease, and set new standards for both managing care and conducting business that promotes the health of all Americans.

"The United States is in the midst of a social, economic, and political health crisis unlike any in recent memory," commented co-author Per Hong, partner at A.T. Kearney. "Healthcare companies are grappling with an uncertain regulatory environment, disruption of typical distribution channels, and fast-changing consumer expectations. Business leaders, policy-makers, and consumers can seize a better tomorrow if they act now to assess the changes under way and put into place forward-reaching solutions."

The report identifies demographic shifts, innovation, science, provider paradigm, treatment, patient data, and payer coverage as the seven drivers of change, each at a complex point of transition.

• Demographic shifts: How will the health industry evolve to address the different needs of aging, prosperous Baby Boomers and prime-adult-year Millennials?
• Innovation: What capabilities must traditional players develop to compete and stay relevant as key technologies from AI to wearables take hold?
• Science: How can we equitably and ethically realize the dazzling possibilities of advancements in personalized treatments linked to breakthroughs in areas such as genetic sequencing and manipulation?
• Provider paradigm: How will the health industry adjust to developments in digitalization and a shift of patient expectations into something more in line with mainstream consumer experience?
• Treatment: How will the conventional health business model adapt to a more proactive, preventative health engagement paradigm from patients, payers, and providers?
• Patient data: How can patient data be made available for innovative and breakthrough applications while protecting against rising cyber threats to patient privacy and security?
• Payer coverage: How will the shift from pay-for-service to pay-for-value occur?

"In the face of these challenges, we've observed an inspiring confluence of positive demographic, scientific, technological, societal, and business trends," commented fellow co-author Erik Peterson, partner and managing director of A.T. Kearney's Global Business Policy Council. "These developments are intersecting in extraordinary ways, with the promise to increase wellness, decrease disease, and set new standards for prevention and care in the next decade."

To help leaders overcome these daunting challenges, the report identifies four contrasting scenarios exploring positive and negative potential futures. The scenarios offer different possible trajectories for the development of the health environment in the United States over the next 10 years, and are meant to stress-test and expand the thinking of what is in store for patients, pharmacists, providers, and drug and device manufacturers--not to mention policymakers and those doing business in other sectors touched by health.

"Through each scenario, we seek to outline a framework for identifying opportunities and risks across these trends," commented Hong. "With scenario-based, forward thinking around the long-term impact of these key trends, we seek to provide a platform for business and political leaders to come together to assess the risks and take action in a complex, volatile market."

No one knows what the future holds, but the impact of a healthy population and vibrant workforce on the ability of the economy to sustain growth should not be underestimated. Each scenario aims to outline a framework for quickly identifying opportunities and risks across these trends to allow leaders in business, government, and nonprofits to build contingencies, address uncertainties, and develop strategies to harness the transformative possibilities that the future may hold.

About the Report
Health@250 explores a range of possible outcomes for the future of US health out to the year 2026, when the United States marks its 250th anniversary. Health@250 builds on the original research of America@250, a national initiative led by global management consulting firm A.T. Kearney on the broader future of the United States at a time of pronounced social, political, and economic change.

The objective of Health@250 is to illuminate the remarkable possibilities, highlight potential risks, and inspire leaders to take the actions necessary today to ensure the brightest future for America and the world.

About A.T. Kearney 
A.T. Kearney is a leading global management consulting firm with offices in more than 40 countries. Since 1926, we have been trusted advisors to the world's foremost organizations. A.T. Kearney is a partner-owned firm, committed to helping clients achieve immediate impact and growing advantage on their most mission-critical issues.

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